Future population projections by country IIASA (with projections).Fertility rate: children per woman by world region, including the UN projections.Comparison of United Nations population projections.Children per woman vs population growth.While the UN projects an almost 3-fold increase of the population of Africa, other researchers find a much smaller increase more likely. The biggest disagreement between different projections is concerning the future of Africa.
Rapid progress in getting children – and especially girls – into schools will result in a much smaller global population. The demographers of WC-IIASA model what will happen according to different scenarios and make clear that the population growth rate tomorrow depends on what we do today. While the UN projections are most widely known, there are other very-carefully-produced projections.The UN projections for the global population growth rates, which have been produced since the 1950s, have a good track record in projecting the size of the global population.The global population growth rate has already slowed down considerably: it reached its peak at over 2% in the 1960s and has been falling since.The countervailing trend is falling fertility rates – the trend of couples having fewer children is what brought rapid population growth to an end in many countries already, and what will bring an end to rapid population growth globally. Improving health is increasing the size of the population as it is decreasing mortality. Global population growth is determined by the number of births and deaths.
While in some regions the world population will likely grow rapidly for the coming decades, other regions will continue to see declining population numbers.
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